Temperatures tend to be warmer across much of the country during the most recent ten La Niaevents as compared to the earliest ten La Niaevents. Winter 2021-22 Outlook - National Weather Service Midwest La Nia Seasonal Snow Departures (23 Winters since 1949-50), Author:Michael K. Tippett and Chiara Lepore Rivers - Quick Look, Cold The last time that there was a La Nia winter was 2020-21 (also moderate strength). Baldwin, 2002: Atmospheric Processes Governing the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation. We can see this by comparing the right image below (more recent events) with the one to the left of it (older events). In the eastern third of the United States, the Farmers Almanac forecasts 57 percent fewer days of measurable precipitation compared with January, though it said that doesnt necessarily mean storminess will be completely absent.". Seattle's winter weather outlook: Above-average rainfall expected Toddler Shot, Taken To Tukwila Fire Station: Police, Suspected Arsonist Arrested Following Massive Marina Fire In Seattle, 30 Boats Destroyed In Seattle Fire Near Ship Canal Bridge, Virtual Diversity Career Fair for the Pacific NW: Seattle | Portland | Vancouver, Jewish Day Schools Just Got More Affordable, Seattle Job Listings: See Who's Hiring In The Area, Seattle Area Prospective Homeowners: 3 New Homes On The Market, How Gas Taxes In Washington Compare To Other States, Seattle Area Pets Waiting To Be Adopted: Dobi, Koby, Dutches & More, 8 WA Billionaires Make Forbes 400 List Of Super Rich, When Does The 1st Frost Usually Occur In WA: How To Protect Plants. The location of the convective phases is often grouped into geographically based stages that climate scientists number 1-8 as shown in Figure 1. There's an 87% chance that La Nia conditions will persist this winter, according to forecasters. Warmer and drier winters are more likely during La Nia over more southern states, and this is exactly where seasonal snowfall tends to be reduced (4). Winter could pound the Northeast with a vengeance starting in mid-December before potentially intensifying in January, which could include a heightened risk for nor'easters and, yes, snowstorms at the tail end of the season. Weather Radio increasing across southern parts of the state as the summer progresses. These are tricky forecasts, and we think well have our share of them this winter. (NOAA Climate.gov, using NWS CPC data) Download Image Temperature For example, 8 of the 11 strong and moderate events show the cool conditions in the Northern Great Plains, which is most winters, but not all. This picture is consistent with long-term warming trends in the United States. Nathaniel C. Johnson, Dan C. Collins, Steven B. Feldstein, Michelle L. LHeureux, and Emily E. Riddle, 2014: Skillful Wintertime North American Temperature Forecasts out to 4 Weeks Based on the State of ENSO and the MJO*. The highest shift in probabilities is from Washington east into western Montana and from southeast Missouri northeast into Michigan, and in western Alaska. best winter forecast preceded the record-breaking Snowmageddon winter of 2009-2010, Our outlook for the winter of 2014-2015 was also quite successful, it was cold, with snow that totaled more than twice the average, has risen between 3 and 5 degrees across the region. We've dodged a lot of bullets I would say. Spokane Farmers' Market moving to Coeur d'Alene Park in Browne's Addition, Bloomsday: 4 decades of growth, triumph and giving back to the Inland Northwest, Summer temps and record highs to stay most of this week, 'We're really on the cusp': Snowmelt expected to pick up steam this week with warmer temperatures, Washington drought improves for second straight week, Dreaming of a white Christmas? Fast, informative and written just for locals. For temperature, theres a strong tendency for temperatures to be below average across some of the West and North, particularly in the Northern Plains, with a weaker signal for above-average temperatures in the Southeast, as shown in the image below. We are currently in the midst of a very persistent negative PDO period. In fact, the winter of 2020-21 ended up being slightly warmer than normal by 1.5F. But State Climatologist Nick . U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) However, considering there have been 23La Nias since the winter of 1949-50, this is a very small sample size. Precipitation will be above normal, with above-average snowfall in the far north and far south. However, Pacific Northwest snow fans should not lose faith just yet. Meanwhile, the 30-year average snowfall has declined from over 20 inches in the late 1800s to just 13.7 inches today. Reviews of Geophysics,43, 1-36. Since the blizzard of 2016 the fourth biggest snowfall on record with more than 17 inches of snow at Reagan National Airport and well over 2 feet in many areas four of the next five winters have been below average for snowfall. Olympia, WA. In one notable departure from other winter predictions to date, AccuWeather's is more bearish on the precipitation front, expecting Western Washington will fall within the normal range between December and February. We do take these long-term trends into account in our winter outlooks. Lett. Tell us your plans in the comments section below. Here is a brief summary of their outlooks: Several of these forecasters agree that winter will start fast with cold, snowy conditions before trending milder. While increased tornado activity is generally associated with La Nina conditions, blaming this years high activity on the weak La Nina conditions would be exaggerating the strength of the historical relationship (footnote 2). The official Climate Prediction Center outlook is similar to these model forecasts, calling for a 70% chance for La Nia to continue through the 2021-2022 winter season. Well, rain this winter is not going to help Eastern Washington right now, which is still dealing with fires. The years are ranked by how far below average the temperatures were in the central/eastern tropical Pacific: strong (at least -1.5 Celsius colder than average), moderate (between -1 and -1.5C), and weak (between -0.5 and -1C colder than average). Blue shading shows Oh, yeah, definitely. In the negative phase of the AO, the polar vortex becomes disturbed, and cold air outbreaks become more likely over the mid-latitudes, including the United States. Site search . The retreat of the jet stream results in more blocking high pressure systems that allow colder air to spill into western and central Canada and parts of the northern contiguous U.S. At the same time, storm track activity across the southern tier of the U.S. is diminished under upper-level high pressure, which also favors milder-than-normal temperatures. But right now, I would say that the evidence is not necessarily far warmer than normal winter overall. Theseries of maps to the right shows temperature patterns across the continental United States compared to the 1981-2010 average for every winter seasonDecember through Februarysince 1950 that coincided with La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center give about a 70-80% chance for weak La Nia conditions to occur from about October 2021 to January 2022. The changes in spring (March May) are similar to those during winter, but somewhat weaker. Historical data for winter steelhead caught on the Hoh River and Quillayute River system, based on interviews with boat and bank anglers. This results in more upwelling of cold water off the Peruvian coast which results in even colder waters in the central and eastern equatorial waters. The most obvious reflection of the phase of this oscillation is the north-to-south location of the storm-steering, mid-latitude jet stream. However, because temperature also plays an important role in snowfall, some predictability is likely nonetheless. The changes in rainfall and winds described above impact both the Tropics and the Extratropics, which makes the MJO important for extended-range weather and climate prediction over the U.S. and many other areas. For more details on why these shifts were made, please see the local winter outlook tab below. These are often referred to as double-dip La Nias. December 31, 2014. February should offer some reprieve from storms. 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